After the Baden‑Württemberg state election, CDU chairman Manuel Hagel said that coalition negotiations will start with the Greens. “The cabinet‑formation mandate now lies with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, if their numbers hold up” Hagel told the ARD on Sunday evening. The bargaining power “now lies in the field of the Greens”.
Hagel added that the CDU will, in the coming days, discuss the next steps “with a clear head” inside the state board and the state parliament caucus. At the moment there is no question of a cabinet post for him as vice premier.
According to the latest ARD and ZDF polls, the Greens are projected to win a median of 31.4 % of the vote, beating the CDU’s 29.8 %. This would allow the green leader Cem Özdemir to most likely continue as state premier in a green‑black coalition. A partnership with the AfD, which is expected to gain about 18.2 %, is mathematically possible but has been ruled out by the Christians.
The SPD performs miserably, around 5.5 %. The FDP falls short of the 5 % threshold with 4.4 %, and the Left experiences the same outcome.