In a recent Infratest survey of voters in Baden‑Württemberg ahead of the March 8 state election, the Greens narrowed the gap to the CDU. The poll, taken from Monday through Wednesday of this week, interviewed 1,530 eligible voters. ARD stresses that the “Deutschlandtrend” is a snapshot of the current political mood rather than a prediction; the Sunday question merely captures present voting intentions.
“Party ratings”
” Greens - 27 % (up 4 percentage points from mid‑January; 32.6 % in the 2021 election)
” CDU - 28 % (down 1 point; 24.1 % in 2021)
” AfD - 18 % (down 2 points; 9.7 % in 2021)
” SPD - 7 % (down 1 point; 11.0 % in 2021)
” FDP - 6 % (up 1 point; 10.5 % in 2021)
” Left - 5.5 % (down 1.5 points; 3.6 % in 2021)
” Others - 8.5 % (up 0.5 points)
“Voting intentions”
” 68 % of respondents have definitively decided whom they will vote for.
” 14 % say their party preference could change by Election Day.
” 18 % are leaning toward abstention or have no party preference yet.
“Satisfaction with the current government”
” 52 % are very satisfied or satisfied with the state government (up 4 points).
” 45 % are less or not satisfied at all.
” Premier Winfried Kretschmann (Greens): 59 % are satisfied or very satisfied (down 2 points from October 2025).
” Greens’ lead candidate Cem Özdemir: 49 % very satisfied or satisfied (up 2 points); 40 % less or not satisfied.
” CDU’s lead candidate Manuel Hagel: 23 % very satisfied or satisfied (up 4 points); 27 % less or not satisfied; 50 % do not know or feel unable to judge.
” AfD’s lead candidate Markus Frohnmaier: 14 % very satisfied or satisfied (up 4 points); 33 % less or not satisfied; 53 % feel unable to judge.
” SPD’s lead candidate Andreas Stoch: 17 % very satisfied or satisfied (up 4 points); 29 % critical; 54 % cannot judge.
” FDP’s lead candidate Hans‑Ulrich Rülke: 13 % satisfied; 31 % dissatisfied; 56 % cannot judge.
“Preferred government leadership”
” 36 % want a CDU‑led state government (down 4 points).
” 34 % prefer a Greens‑led government (up 2 points).
” 19 % insist on an AfD‑led government (unchanged).
” 11 % remain undecided.
If the choice is limited to CDU versus Greens: 48 % favor a CDU‑led cabinet, 34 % a Greens‑led cabinet, and 18 % are undecided.
“Direct election of the state premier”
Had respondents been able to elect the premier directly:
” 42 % would choose Cem Özdemir (up 3 points).
” 21 % would choose Manuel Hagel (up 2 points).
” 11 % would choose Markus Frohnmaier (up 2 points).
” 26 % answered “I don’t know” or did not state a preference.
When the poll presented only the Greens and CDU options for a direct vote, 43 % preferred Özdemir, 28 % preferred Hagel, and 29 % gave no answer.