A recent study by the Ifo Institute, which re‑examined the Federal Statistical Office’s latest population projections, shows that Germany’s population will fall by almost 10 % by 2070. That figure represents a sharp revision from the earlier estimate of a 1 % decline.
“Because the population is shrinking faster and ageing more rapidly, political decisions with long‑term effects-such as health care and social care-must take these changes into account today” said Joachim Ragnitz of the Ifo branch in Dresden. Ragnitz warned that the labour market will face a growing shortage and that statutory pension insurance will be under greater pressure.
Ifo researcher Robert Lehmann added that a shrinking population means a lower demand for housing, transport infrastructure, and public‑sector staff. At the same time, the share of older people will rise sharply, placing higher demands on health and care services.
The study finds large regional disparities: eastern German states are hit far harder than western urban centres, while the city‑states are projected to see a modest population increase by 2070.
The basis for this substantial downward revision is the 2022 census, which counted 81.9 million people in Germany-below the 83.2 million figure reported by the 2011 census. With a lower starting point, even with broadly similar assumptions for birth rates and migration, the projections now indicate a long‑term steep decline. Until now, forecasts had assumed a relatively stable population that would even grow slightly through 2030.