Preliminary figures released this week indicate a marginal decline in Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions for 2025, falling by nine million tonnes, or 1.5 percent, to a total of 640 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents compared to the previous year. While this represents a 49 percent reduction from the baseline year of 1990, fulfilling the nation’s annual emissions target for 2025, the overall reduction pales in comparison to the progress made in the prior year – a concerning trend raising questions about the efficacy of current policy.
The modest reduction is attributed primarily to contractions in production within energy-intensive industries, fueled by persistent global economic headwinds and weakened demand. A surge in solar power generation also played a contributing role. However, the energy sector itself, typically a crucial driver of emissions reductions, experienced substantially less progress than in previous years, hampered significantly by unfavorable weather conditions.
Critically, emissions in the transport and building sectors saw an increase, a development that undermines Germany’s broader climate goals. A colder-than-average start to the year resulted in a rise in oil and gas consumption for heating, pushing building-related emissions up by three million tonnes of CO2, a 3.2 percent increase. Concurrently, a slight rise in fuel consumption led to a 1.4 percent increase in transport sector emissions. These divergences suggest a concerning reliance on fossil fuels in key areas, despite ambitious decarbonization pledges.
Based on currently available data, Germany is projected to miss European climate protection targets by approximately 30 million tonnes of CO2. This shortfall highlights a growing policy challenge: while industrial downturns may temporarily depress emissions, addressing the underlying issues driving consumption in sectors like transportation and heating is vital for sustained progress and adherence to international commitments. The report from Agora Energiewende serves as a sharp reminder that relying solely on sectoral fluctuations is an inadequate strategy, demanding a critical reassessment of Germany’s climate policy trajectory and a renewed focus on long-term, structural changes. The inability to meet even softened EU targets throws into question Germany’s leadership role in the climate crisis, demanding immediate and decisive action.