The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs appears to have modeled several scenarios for how citizens could be financially supported regarding energy prices. According to a report by Mediengruppe Bayern on an internal document titled “Iran Crisis: Alternative Scenarios of Possible Overall Economic Impacts on the Euro Area and Germany” the office of Katherina Reiche (CDU) reportedly favors relief measures that are as precisely targeted as possible.
Conversely, the energy reduction in the electricity tax for all consumers is described as having an “untargeted relief effect”. The same assessment applies to an “energy price flat-rate” or a “discount on fuel”. Significantly, reducing the value-added tax on fuel to seven percent is also labeled as “untargeted”.
This analysis is structured with “Pro” “Neutral” and “Con” arguments. However, the document frequently lists only “Con” arguments. Furthermore, no “Pro” arguments are found for suspending the CO2 price or the truck toll, or for imposing a price cap on gasoline. This lack of support also extends to lowering the vehicle tax.
The costs associated with an energy price flat-rate, similar to those issued in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, are estimated at 20 billion euros.
One measure for which Reiche has recently generated positive sentiment is a temporary increase in the commuter allowance. Regarding this, the document’s “Pro” section notes that it provides a “targeted relief effect for professional commuters, but not based on mode of mobility or income”. However, a potential concern noted is the “delayed effect and visibility”.