Federation, states, and municipalities must anticipate significantly lower tax revenues in the coming years compared to the forecasts made last autumn. According to the tax estimate presented by Federal Minister of Finance Lars Klingbeil (SPD) on Thursday, total tax revenues between 2026 and 2030 are expected to fall by approximately 87 billion Euros compared to the October estimates released just a few months ago. This translates to an annual reduction of about 17 to 18 billion Euros across the period.
The federal government (Bund) will bear the largest decline, with its tax estimate for 2026 through 2030 being adjusted downwards by 52 billion Euros. States face a projected drop of about 16 billion Euros, and municipalities anticipate a reduction of approximately 24 billion Euros. The only exception is EU taxes, which are now expected to increase by around five billion Euros by 2030.
Looking at the specific years, tax revenues are projected to reach 998.8 billion Euros in 2026. In the following year, 2027, the figures are expected to exceed the trillion-Euro mark at 1,033.4 billion Euros. By 2030, revenues are anticipated to stabilize at 1,138 billion Euros-a slightly slower rate of increase than previously hoped.
Minister Klingbeil attributed the decrease “to how much the war in Iran is economically harming us” stating that the consequences of “Trump’s irresponsible war and the resulting global energy price shock are temporarily dampening positive economic momentum”.
He emphasized that the current situation remains characterized by great uncertainty, necessitating constant crisis management, which includes immediate relief measures due to high energy prices. The government is prepared to act “at any time if the crisis escalates further”. Simultaneously, Klingbeil stressed the need for long-term strengthening, declaring, “We must continue to work hard to become more crisis-resistant and independent. Therefore, we are focusing on investments and reforms to make Germany stronger”. The primary government objective remains securing jobs, creating new employment, and guaranteeing economic growth.