The DAX index opened the trading week on Monday morning with a positive start. By 9:30 a.m., the leading index was calculated at approximately 24,360 points, marking a 0.3 percent increase from the closing level on Thursday.
Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at Consorsbank, noted that the index’s recovery before the extended weekend seems more impressive in isolation than it is within the broader context of an ongoing lack of discernible trend. He pointed to several underlying pressures, including the persistently high price of oil and the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz, along with damaging new tariff threats that weigh on overall sentiment.
Stanzl cautioned that the DAX is entering a seasonally weak phase. While historical seasonal patterns have previously provided support, he suggested the index might continue to move sideways. He stated that achieving a direct push toward an all-time high appears difficult for the DAX as long as oil prices remain near $120.
Regarding investor behavior, Stanzl explained that short-term strength is derived from the fact that while oil prices rose up to the $120 threshold, they have not crossed it since the start of the war. He views the $120 mark as a key indicator for market sentiment in the energy sector, noting that the markets seem to accept price fluctuations between $100 and $120. Furthermore, as Western stockpiles deplete daily, any increase above $120 is simply a matter of time if maritime traffic remains hindered by blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.
Adding to the caution, Stanzl described investors viewing US President Trump’s announced aid effort for stranded vessels in the Persian Gulf with skepticism. He questioned whether any ships would attempt passage through the Strait of Hormuz until issues regarding insurance and safety are fully clarified, concluding that the stock markets are now attuned to demanding actions and clear results, rather than merely accepting statements.
In related commodity movements, the European common currency was slightly weaker at the start of Monday: the Euro cost $1.1726, meaning the dollar was valued at 0.8528 Euros. Gold prices also softened, trading at $4,586 per fine ounce in the morning, equating to €125.74 per gram, a decline of 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed: a barrel of North Sea Brent crude cost $109.00 at 9:00 a.m. German time, representing an increase of 0.7 percent, or 78 cents, over the previous day’s closing price.