A recent analysis by the non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E), reported by Spiegel, suggests that if the Union and Social Democrat parties prevail with their proposals regarding the phasing out of internal combustion engines, the market share growth of electric vehicles will be slower than anticipated.
The T&E analysis predicts that the market share for electric cars across all sales by 2035 will only reach between 53% and 76%. This forecast is significantly lower than the 85% share projected under the original EU Commission proposal.
According to the coalition’s proposed changes, internal combustion engines that are fueled exclusively by biofuels or e-fuels would be classified as “zero-emission vehicles”. Furthermore, the system would maintain generous assumptions regarding the CO2 emissions of plug-in hybrids. This is problematic because anonymized usage data has already revealed that these hybrid models consume substantially more fuel than is currently declared.
The implication of these proposals is that the auto industry could continue selling and meeting emission limits with a continued mix of traditional combustion and hybrid vehicles. T&E criticizes the coalition’s stance, arguing that its proposals actively work against the clear global market trend moving toward fully electric vehicles.