The ZEW’s calculated “future quota” for the German federal budget reached a new peak in 2025.
According to ZEW researcher Friedrich Heinemann, “the good news is that future expenditures in the overall budget for 2025 are as high as ever, at 22.3 percent – €125 billion”. He added that the less favourable side is that the entire expansion of future spending is being shifted into special funds. Those funds are highly forward‑looking, whereas the core budget line is again steeply declining, from 20.5 percent two years ago to 17.3 percent today.
When asked for details, Heinemann clarified that the future quota in the Special Fund for Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality (SVIK) stands at 90 percent, while the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) has recently approached 60 percent.
He also addressed the debate over the additional borrowing. “We are now, to some extent, joining those who say: yes, that may be true for the special funds, because they are relatively future‑oriented. But we show that this shifting logic does not apply only to the narrowly defined investment quota; it applies to the broadly defined future quota as well”. He emphasized that these new debts do not match the level of future spending on a total‑budget basis, thereby refuting the narrative that the extra expenditure is self‑sustaining.
The “future quota” is calculated on behalf of WWF Germany. When asked about savings recommendations for the federal government, WWF climate chief Viviane Raddatz said she would always first target the restructuring and elimination of climate‑harmful and environmentally damaging subsidies. “There’s a €65 billion line in the federal budget that is currently being discussed for an increase-somewhere along the lines of the commuter allowance-to cushion current intense pressures, but it is not being structurally redesigned to move towards a different logic”.
She added that this is not all “eliminatable”. “There is a lot of room for redesign to stimulate genuine investment from these subsidies”. Of course, the focus should remain on directing investments in a manner that actually spurs growth and private investment, thereby strengthening the budget in the long run.