Germany’s trade surplus is shrinking, raising concerns about the resilience of Europe’s largest economy amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape. Preliminary data released Friday by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) revealed a 2.5% calendar- and seasonally-adjusted decline in German exports in November 2025 compared to October 2025, accompanied by a 0.8% rise in imports. Year-on-year, exports dipped 0.8% while imports surged by a more significant 5.4%.
The decline signifies a worrying trend, demonstrating a weakening in demand for German manufactured goods globally. While the November 2025 trade balance still registered a surplus of €13.1 billion, this represents a significant contraction from the €17.2 billion surplus in October 2025 and the robust €20.0 billion surplus recorded in November 2024. Analysts attribute the change, in part, to ongoing global economic uncertainties and the lingering effects of supply chain disruptions.
The slowdown is particularly pronounced within the European Union. Exports to EU member states fell by 4.2% in November 2025 compared to the previous month, alongside a 4.0% decrease in imports from those nations. The Eurozone saw similar contractions of 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The decline across the board within the EU highlights a potential slowdown in the bloc’s internal trade dynamics, prompting questions about the strength of demand within Germany’s key regional markets.
Interestingly, exports to nations outside the EU (third countries) experienced a slight dip of 0.2%, while imports from these regions increased by a notable 6.3%. This divergence suggests a potential shift in trade patterns, with Germany becoming increasingly reliant on imports from non-EU markets, a situation that could pose longer-term vulnerabilities.
The United States remains Germany’s largest export market, though exports to the US experienced a 4.2% decrease compared to October 2025 and a dramatic 22.9% drop year-on-year, reflecting growing trade tensions and potential impacts from evolving US protectionist policies. In contrast, exports to China saw a modest increase of 3.4% compared to October, reaching €6.5 billion. While a positive sign, observers caution that this growth may be partly offset by ongoing political uncertainties and geopolitical complexities surrounding Sino-German trade relations.
Imports are heavily skewed towards China, with €14.9 billion in goods entering Germany in November 2025, representing an 8.0% increase from the previous month. This escalating reliance on Chinese imports raises concerns about potential economic leverage and supply chain dependencies. Furthermore, a significant 10.9% rise in imports from the United Kingdom, despite ongoing post-Brexit adjustments, adds a layer of complexity to Germany’s trade relationships.
The data reveals a separate, concerning trend concerning trade with Russia. Exports to the Russian Federation plummeted 5.5% compared to October 2025 and a staggering 22.5% year-on-year. Despite sanctions continuing to significantly impact trade, imports from Russia unexpectedly rose by 22.5% compared to October 2025, representing a precarious situation for Germany, raising questions about compliance with sanctions and potential vulnerabilities stemming from energy or raw material dependencies.
Nominal (unadjusted) figures further illustrate the weakening trade performance, revealing a notable reduction in exports and an increase in imports compared to November 2024. The overall unadjusted trade surplus also contracted significantly, underscoring the depth and breadth of this evolving economic picture. Destatis’s preliminary findings provide a stark warning, demanding a deeper investigation into the underlying causes and potential long-term implications for the German economy and its role within the global trade network.