German export sentiment has slipped. In March, the Ifo export expectations fell to -0.9 points, down from +2.7 in February. “The war in Iran has noticeably increased uncertainty among exporters” said Klaus Wohlrabe, director of the Ifo surveys, adding that many firms worry about falling demand in key markets.

The automotive sector, however, expects a clear uptick in exports, with its indicator rising to the highest level since June 2020. The furniture, electronics, and beverage industries also foresee growing overseas sales. In contrast, the machinery sector shows little dynamism, and metal production and processing remain stagnant.

Paper manufacturing, printing, and the chemical industry still anticipate falling exports. Wohlrabe warned that the trajectory of export performance over the coming months will largely depend on how the conflict unfolds.