The Institute of German Economic Research (IW) warns that businesses in Germany may not be adequately prepared for a tension or defense scenario. A still unpublished IW study-reported by the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”-argues that total defense and deterrence against Russia cannot be conceived purely militarily; it requires the systematic integration of the economy.
The IW economists base their findings on a survey of more than 1,000 companies. The results are mixed: 86 % report that they already effectively protect themselves against cyber attacks, and the majority have taken measures against disinformation, sabotage, and espionage. In contrast, only around three per cent are ready for a material failure, and only four per cent have emergency plans for a major loss of workforce. The study finds that just under five per cent have standing contracts, 24 per cent are prepared for infrastructure shortfalls in an emergency, and an additional 17 per cent intend to strengthen their arrangements.
In a real crisis, firms would face significant responsibilities. Defence, technology and supplier companies would need to provide weapons, vehicles and equipment in the necessary quantities. At the same time, private companies would have to release employees for military service, transport, logistics and medical duties, smooth out supply‑chain disruptions, and secure their systems against cyber‑attacks.
According to the IW, the most important role of the economy in a crisis is to ensure that the population continues to receive the same level of supply-also for security reasons. “A sharp economic and prosperity downturn could call into question support for defence efforts on NATO’s eastern flank” write the authors.