the potential for weapons smuggling out of Ukraine and the persistent manipulation of migration flows..
Frontex Vice Director Lars Gerdes cautioned that should active combat cease in Ukraine, the country may retain substantial amounts of weapons, ammunition, and explosives. He assessed the resulting risk of illicit arms trafficking as “high”. According to Gerdes, a peace agreement could lead to large-scale weapons smuggling, posing a significant security problem for Europe, particularly if these arms divert into criminal networks or the hands of terrorists. He noted that a scenario reminiscent of the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars is plausible, albeit involving weapons of newer generations. In response, Frontex is currently deploying increased personnel across the western border of Ukraine to closely monitor the escalating situation.
In a separate operational area, Frontex is continuously monitoring how state actors, such as Belarus and Russia, instrumentalize migration at the EU’s external borders. Gerdes highlighted observed movements, such as alleged flight patterns from migratory populations in Eastern Europe toward Libya. He doubted these movements were purely voluntary endeavors by the people themselves. Regarding the route from Libya, he warned that efforts to reach Europe are already causing a sharp increase in arrivals, notably on the Greek island of Crete. Drawing from these patterns, Gerdes concluded by predicting that yet another major crisis is imminent.