The EU Commission believes that the war in Iran could trigger a refugee movement of significant magnitude. This assessment comes from confidential diplomatic correspondence that the “Spiegel” and the ARD magazine “Report Mainz” have reported.
A protocol from a meeting of European diplomats and officials held in Brussels on Wednesday indicates that, while concrete numbers are still unavailable, there are already “movements toward rural areas and the coast”. If the crisis persists, the report warns of a possible humanitarian crisis in Iran and its neighboring countries, with migration patterns that could resemble those seen in 2015.
Turkey, the country that would most likely receive Iranian refugees, is particularly concerned. Ankara has said it is considering establishing “buffer zones” along the border and a tent city that could accommodate up to 90,000 refugees, according to the Turkish Interior Minister’s statement on Wednesday.
The EU Commission is also monitoring the situation of roughly 2.5 million Afghans living in Iran. If Iran continues to destabilize, the correspondence suggests that these citizens might flee to neighboring states.