A new study by the Ifo Institute and Econpol Europe, released this Thursday, shows that EU‑originated military goods continue to reach Russia through third countries despite the extensive sanctions regime. The research finds that 36 % of the sanctioned items shipped into Russia transit via Turkey, 23 % go through China, 16 % through Hong Kong, and 10 % through the United Arab Emirates. “Since the beginning of 2024 the EU has significantly tightened and broadened its export bans to Russia” said Ifo trade expert Feodora Teti. “This has reduced the amount of sanction circumvention via third countries, although EU‑sanctioned military equipment still finds its way to Russia through indirect routes”.
During the final quarter of 2024, EU exports that routed through third states to Russia represented only about six % of pre‑war levels. In the period from September 2022 to January 2024, the monthly average hovered between 13 % and 24 %. Teti noted that the study captures only indirect exports via third countries; other forms of evasion-such as smuggling by private individuals and falsified declarations of goods or origin-are not reflected in the data. “Therefore, our estimates should be seen as a lower bound for the real scale of sanction evasion” she added.
In 2024 the EU also expanded liability for violations of its Russia sanctions to cases where suppliers or intermediaries were aware, or ought to have been aware, of potential circumvention through third states. The bloc broadened its export bans to cover all 42 military‑relevant product categories and imposed targeted sanctions on individual intermediaries involved in re‑exports.
The study relied on trade data for the 42 military‑relevant products that fall under EU export prohibitions to Russia and have repeatedly been found in Russian military systems. By analysing import records based on Russian customs declarations at the transaction level, the researchers examined the flow of military goods from the EU to Russia both before and after the onset of the war in Ukraine.