Current inflation rates for energy products, measured against the previous year, are sometimes comparable to those recorded during earlier oil or global economic crises. However, the increases immediately following the start of the war in Ukraine four years ago were observably much steeper. This conclusion is drawn from a comparative analysis by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), examining the price trends for crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas over the past 50 years and across various economic levels.
As of March 2026, German consumers reported paying an average of 17.3% more for super gasoline and 29.7% more for diesel compared to the previous year, making total fuel 20.0% more expensive. Furthermore, residential heating oil saw a significant price jump of 44.4% compared to March 2025.
These current increases, while high, are noticeably less severe than the spikes immediately following the war in Ukraine. In contrast, in March 2022, private consumers paid an average of 41.9% more for super gasoline and 62.7% more for diesel year-over-year, resulting in total fuel costs being 46.8% higher. For heating oil, the cost nearly doubled (+144.4%) compared to March 2021.
Looking at wholesale and import prices provides a mixed picture. In March 2026, import and producer prices are driven by both continued high levels of certain energy goods since the war began and by the mechanisms of long-term contracts. For instance, producer prices for mineral oil derivatives rose sharply by 18.3% in March 2026 compared to March 2025, attributable to events in Iran and the Middle East. Conversely, crude oil and natural gas producer prices were lower than a year prior (-10.2% and -19.5%, respectively). However, comparing March 2026 to February 2026 shows recent cost increases: crude oil rose 14.8%, and natural gas rose 8.8%.
A similar variation appears in import prices. In March 2026, crude oil imports cost 24.6% more than a year ago, and mineral oil product imports increased by 48.6%. Natural gas, however, saw a year-over-year decline of 8.6%. This decline in gas prices is related to the fact that imports were priced lower than in the previous year. Comparing to the preceding month, both crude oil imports (+45.9%), mineral oil product imports (+41.6%), and natural gas imports (+19.6%) have seen substantial recent increases.
The contrast is stark when comparing to the outset of the Ukraine war. In March 2022, import prices for crude oil (+87.5%), mineral oil products (+108.4%), and natural gas (+330.5%) had increased much more dramatically than year-over-year. These spikes, however, were partly based on a base effect, as oil and gas imports were unusually cheap due to low demand during the pandemic in early 2021.
Throughout history, similarly dramatic developments have only been observed in connection with the two major oil crises of 1974 and 1980, or the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009.
The high price increases for crude and mineral oil products recorded in 1973/74 mirror the current situation across all economic levels. This crisis was triggered by the Yom Kippur War in November 1973. Import prices for crude oil rose 41.7% month-over-month compared to October. In March 1974, imported crude oil was over three times the price it was a year earlier (+221.1% versus March 1973). Meanwhile, domestic producer prices for mineral oils had reached their highest year-over-year rate of change by February 1974 (+66.4% versus February 1973). For private consumers, fuel prices reached a peak in February 1974, with a 32.5% year-over-year increase. Heating oil prices for households had already peaked in December 1973 (+183.3% versus December 1972). Natural gas prices lagged behind oil. The highest increase for imported gas was recorded in May 1975 (a +114.0% increase year-over-year). For consumers, the highest gas price increase was actually reached earlier, in February 1975 (+17.6% versus February 1974).
During the second oil crisis of 1979/1980, consumers faced clear price hikes for heating oil and fuel. This crisis stemmed from the supply disruptions related to the Islamic Revolution in Iran starting in 1979 and the First Gulf War beginning in September 1980. In the spring of 1979, the price hike for imported crude oil accelerated, peaking in March 1980 at double the previous year’s cost (+101.4%). Import prices remained high up until 1985, before declining sharply through the rest of the 1980s. For private consumers, heating oil costs increased by 110.8% a year earlier. Fuel prices reached a historic peak of 27.7% in September 1981 compared to September 1980. Gas prices followed the oil price surge with a delay, reaching a peak increase of 62.7% in September 1981 year-over-year. For consumers, the highest increase in gas prices was reached even earlier, in January 1981 (+22.2% versus January 1980).
The COVID-19 recession marked a similar period of sharp increases. Following a period of economic stress, the price surge stabilized.
The most remarkable convergence of supply and demand stresses was observed during the 2022-2023 period. As the war in Ukraine continued and geopolitical instability mounted, crude oil prices began their sharp ascent. This price climb, coupled with escalating logistical costs, reflected supply curtailments and heightened global demand.