Leading economists are issuing stark warnings about the potential economic repercussions of a proposed hardening of German migration policy, spearheaded by the Christian Social Union (CSU) within the Bundestag. A position paper outlining the CSU’s plans, set for discussion within the party’s state group, reportedly advocates for the return of the majority of Syrian refugees to their country of origin.
These proposals are triggering significant alarm within the economic community, with experts cautioning against a policy shift that threatens to undermine Germany’s already fragile economic growth. Jens Südekum, economic advisor to Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, emphasized to “Handelsblatt” that German employment growth is now overwhelmingly reliant on individuals with migrant backgrounds, a stark reality against the backdrop of a shrinking domestic workforce due to demographic decline. “Under these circumstances, contemplating large-scale deportations simply doesn’t make economic sense” he stated.
Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), labeled the CSU’s plan as a “serious mistake with enormous economic costs for Germany”. He asserted that the vast majority of refugees who arrived in Germany since 2015 are now integral to both the labor market and German society. Fratzscher warned that a deportation campaign could potentially push the German economy back into recession, a consequence of the immediate loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs.
While Südekum acknowledges the validity of certain CSU proposals, such as the expedited deportation of those unwilling to integrate or involved in criminal activity, he stressed the importance of avoiding extremism in their implementation. He reiterated Germany’s “essential” dependence on immigration, pointing out that core sectors of the economy are increasingly unviable without it, including those staffed by individuals originating from Syria. Fratzscher underscored this point further, highlighting the growing number of refugees now employed in crucial, systemically important sectors, including healthcare and elder care.
The economists’ concerns inject a critical dimension into the debate, raising questions about the potential trade-offs between political expediency and long-term economic stability. The CSU’s proposals, while driven by anxieties surrounding immigration and integration, risk triggering a counterproductive economic shock and exposing a critical vulnerability within the German economy. The coming discussions promise to be contentious and will reveal the extent to which economic realities can temper political ambitions.