Economist Achim Truger is calling for a macro‑economic response to the looming price shock triggered by the Gulf War. In a piece for the magazine “Surplus”, he warns that the current situation carries the risk of a new global economic crisis and insists that both Germany and the EU must now begin preparing a coordinated macro‑economic crisis reaction.
Among his proposals is the suspension of the debt brake and the implementation of price caps. Truger argues that price regulation should be deployed in such a way that excessive price increases at the pump and throughout the entire value chain are prevented. He suggests re‑activating well‑designed gas, oil, and electricity price caps that encourage savings and reward minimal consumption, specifically for households and industry. To fund these targeted, time‑limited support measures, he says the fiscal policy would need to use the exceptional debt‑brake rule again.
Truger also stresses the need for a joint effort between government and trade union partners to stop a potential wage‑price spiral arising from a sharp inflationary spike. He proposes, for instance, a temporary tax‑free and social‑security‑free inflation‑compensation bonus that would be applied to one‑off payments, similar to the measures used after the Ukraine price shock. On the EU level, he calls for pandemic‑era‑style assistance programmes for member states that lack the necessary fiscal capacity to tackle the crisis. With such a package in place, he argues, the European Central Bank would not have to raise interest rates unnecessarily and the economy would avoid further damage.