The DAX opened the trading day on Tuesday morning noticeably higher. At around 9:30 a.m. the index was calculated at roughly 23,960 points, 2.4 % above yesterday’s closing level. At the top of the daily list were Infineon, Siemens Energy, and Continental; at the bottom were FMC, Gea, and Deutsche Börse.
A prominent theme was energy prices, which fell again after remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump that a quick end to the Middle‑East conflict was possible. The oil price dropped sharply: a barrel of Brent crude fetched about US $90.25 at 9 a.m. German time, an amount $8.71 or 8.8 % lower than the closing price the previous day.
Gas prices fell almost 17 % at the start of trading. In European wholesale markets, an offer of €47 per megawatt‑hour was called for April delivery, implying a consumer price of 10-12 cents per kilowatt‑hour including taxes. The previous day, the wholesale price had peaked at up to €68 per MWh.
Consorsbank’s senior market analyst Jochen Stanzl said, “Oil prices fell almost as fast yesterday as they had risen earlier” attributing the decline to hopes of a swift end to the conflict sparked by Trump’s CBS interview. “The US appears to be willing to negotiate, and investors are applying the TACO logic to Trump’s policy: the president keeps pressure on until market volatility is tolerable”. Stanzl added that this logic seemed to have been reinforced when the price rose to almost US $120.
He cautioned that the threat to markets remains. “Trump may say the war is essentially over, but the question is whether Iran shares that view” Stanzl warned. “Primarily, proof is required that the Strait of Hormuz is safe again for the passage of dozens of tankers that export oil and gas worldwide”.
Stanzl characterised the current oil price as “the proverbial tail that wagged the dog”. Stocks respond to minute price changes. With each tanker that passes safely through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium in oil should drop. Investors are now waiting for evidence to support Trump’s statements. If that evidence is lacking, anxiety could quickly rise again.