Three days before the state election in Baden Württemberg, the ZDF “Politbarometer” poll shows the CDU and the Greens tied at 28 percent each. AfD comes next with 18 percent, followed by the SPD at 8 percent, the FDP and the Left both at 5.5 percent, and all the remaining smaller parties together at about 7 percent.

Compared with the previous “Politbarometer” survey a week earlier, the Union has picked up one point, the Greens have gained a solid three points, and AfD has slipped one point. A few weeks ago, the Christdemokraten were comfortably ahead of all other parties in the polls.

The “Politbarometer” has long been regarded as one of the most accurate polling institutions, thanks to its consistently small gap between its last pre‑election poll and the actual election result.