Andrew Lobbenberg, an aviation services at Barclays, views the current pricing trends on Europe-Asia routes as temporary. He told Spiegel that once Gulf carriers fully resume operations, prices are likely to drop sharply, possibly to unexpectedly low levels. However, the timing of this potential shift remains unclear even among experts.
Ticket prices for Europe-Asia routes have skyrocketed due to the conflict involving Iran, increasing by as much as 560 percent compared to the previous month. This price surge is a direct result of restricted airspace over Russia, Iran, and the Persian Gulf. As a consequence, European airlines have been forced to reroute through a narrow corridor passing over Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since the withdrawal of Western forces in 2021, this region lacks comprehensive air traffic control, including radar and standard air traffic management services, with coordination handled by neighboring countries like Pakistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan.
A potential 14-day ceasefire in the Iranian conflict could signal a gradual easing of tensions. Should the Gulf hubs resume full operations and the Iranian airspace become reliably usable in the long term, the pressure on the Afghanistan corridor and consequently on flight prices could significantly decrease.