Research from the University of Bordeaux indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), sometimes called the “central heating system of Europe” is significantly less stable than previously assumed, a finding recently published in “Science Advances”. This vital ocean current system plays a central role in regulating the Earth’s climate. The AMOC functions by transporting warm, shallow water from the tropics northward while moving cold, deep water southward.
According to the new study, this major current system could weaken by an alarming 51% by the end of the century. This forecast represents a substantial increase in projected decline compared to earlier climate models, which had anticipated a reduction of only 32%.
It is important to note that the precise magnitude of this decline is contingent upon greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. The 51% reduction projection is based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which aligns with current climate policy measures. Furthermore, the model does not yet account for the additional weakening effects that could be caused by meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet.
The implications of an AMOC failure are severe. Should this circulatory system collapse, Northwest Europe could experience an average temperature drop of between 5 and 15 degrees Celsius compared to current levels. The resulting changes would include more intense summer droughts, extremely cold winters, and significant shifts in tropical rainfall patterns.