According to a new poll conducted by Insa, the AfD has reached a record high of 42% in Saxony. This marks a significant increase of seven percentage points compared to the poll conducted in June of last year. Notably, this is the first such survey released by an established polling institute for Saxony in almost a year.
The results show the CDU, led by Minister-President Michael Kretschmer, plummeted by five points to 21%. The BSW lost four points, achieving 7%. The SPD and the Greens both maintained steady figures at 6% each, while The Left (Linke) held at 9%. Other parties collectively accounted for 9%.
Further analysis of the poll reveals that nearly half of all residents in Saxony (49%) have either previously voted for the AfD or are open to doing so. Furthermore, only 39% of respondents categorically rule out voting for the AfD-a figure Insa reported as historically low. The survey suggests that the maximum electoral potential for the CDU is merely 36%, indicating that almost one in two potential CDU/Union voters (52%) currently show a tendency toward the AfD.
Regarding local leadership, if the voters in Saxony could elect their Minister-President directly, incumbent Michael Kretschmer (CDU) would clearly defeat AfD leader Jörg Urban. The poll showed 44% would vote for Kretschmer, 20% for Urban, and 22% for neither candidate. The report notes that older voters and dedicated supporters of the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left remain particularly loyal to the Minister-President. Overall satisfaction levels are low: only 35% of voters reported being satisfied or somewhat satisfied, while 58% were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.
The sentiment towards the federal government was equally stark. A massive 85% reported being dissatisfied, with only 12% expressing satisfaction. Moreover, 76% indicated that their trust in the political capacity of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) had decreased, and only 4% predicted any improvement.
Insa conducted the survey between May 13th and May 20th, surveying nearly 1,000 people. The polling commission for this study was the controversial platform “Nius” run by former “Bild” editor-in-chief Julian Reichelt.