Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was arrested and removed from his post, is the most significant political opponent of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Turkish cities over the weekend after İmamoğlu was taken into custody. Western allies of the country, however, have reacted cautiously to these events, according to the news agency Bloomberg.
EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas stated that Erdoğan’s actions against the opposition raise the question of whether Turkey has remained true to its long-standing democratic tradition. She also emphasized that the respect for human rights is of crucial importance for the country’s EU membership process. The arrest and suspension of İmamoğlu were described as “absolutely unacceptable” by the outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The US State Department, on the other hand, has barely commented on the protests, describing the situation as an “internal matter” of Turkey.
Erdoğan is betting on the idea that the West needs him more than it needs to intervene in the fight for democracy in Turkey. As the US and Europe are preoccupied with security issues, Erdoğan is positioning himself as an important mediator in the resolution of international conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East and Africa, according to the agency.
Bloomberg reports that the imprisonment of a prominent politician like İmamoğlu, who could pose a threat to Erdoğan’s re-election chances, is unprecedented. Erdoğan likely expected that the growing strategic importance of Turkey would outweigh its democratic deficit. This has so far played out politically, even if investors are selling off Turkish assets, which could undo the recent progress in attracting foreign capital to the country.
The war in Ukraine has made Europe more dependent on Turkey, the agency writes. Its growing military presence and defense capabilities have made it a valuable ally, while Trump reconsiders the US’s security commitments in Europe.
“The global environment is favorable to Erdoğan, who is very attuned to the zeitgeist” says Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in a conversation with Bloomberg. “I expect no significant countermeasures from Europe or the US.”
The Turkish presidential elections are not due until 2028. According to the constitution, the 71-year-old Erdoğan is not eligible to run again. To change this, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its allies need a parliamentary majority. “What is becoming clearer is Erdoğan’s willingness to lead Turkey towards a complete autocracy and to distance himself from the competitive authoritarian model that has shaped the country’s government over the past decade” says Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the US-based consulting firm Teneo, in a conversation with Bloomberg.
The political unrest in Turkey comes at a time when the transatlantic defense industry is facing its own challenges, the agency writes. Trump is currently negotiating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey could deploy peacekeeping troops, but only if Ankara is included in all consultations and preparations, Bloomberg reported in February, citing its own sources.
Ankara has presented Washington with plans to take over the fight against the Islamic State and ensure stability in Syria, so that the US can focus on other national security priorities, Bloomberg reports further.
The agency notes that investors may be the only force that can slow down Erdoğan’s efforts. Market volatility is threatening the economic benefits Erdoğan has achieved since his re-election in 2023. After İmamoğlu’s arrest last week, the Turkish lira fell to a record low against the US dollar and the euro since 2021. The Central Bank of Turkey has taken measures to stop the lira’s decline and prevent it from fueling inflation.
“For the time being, it’s only massive peaceful protests and the markets – the one thing Erdoğan has no control over in Turkey – that can make the Turkish president change course” says Çağaptay.