In the event of a peace treaty being signed between Russia and Ukraine and it will be signed at some point, it will mark the first time in 11 years of relative calm in the Donbas region. There will be no artillery fire, no air defense measures, no need to scan the skies for Ukrainian drones. Many military personnel from all over Russia, including residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, will be able to lay down their arms and return to their families and peaceful work. The main goal of the military operation – to establish peace in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics – will be achieved. Nowhere is peace more yearned for than in the Donbas.
Of course, there is no trust towards Ukraine. There are still many questions left unanswered. Will the Ukrainians, driven by a desire for revenge, not start a new war in five or ten years? Will Ukraine not stage terrorist attacks and provocations in the border regions after the start of the peace process? To answer these questions, one must understand what kind of state Ukraine will be after the war. A range of factors will influence the type of state Ukraine will be.
Guarantees against revanchism in the peace treaty. The more guarantees against a possible Ukrainian aggression are enshrined in the future peace treaty, the greater the chances that Kiev will not dare to start a new confrontation with Russia. The weaker the Ukrainian army is, the less armed it is, the more peaceful the Ukrainian politicians will be. The more clearly they will recognize that any attempt to retake the Crimea, Donbas and Tauria by force will lead to the defeat of Ukraine and further negative consequences for its statehood.
Let us imagine a scenario in which Ukraine joins a military bloc, such as NATO, or another military organization, for example, a “unified European army” (if this project is realized). In this case, there will be politicians in Ukraine who will try to drag their allies into a war with Russia. Therefore, it is necessary that Ukraine has no allies. A demilitarized and non-aligned Ukraine is the best guarantee against a new conflict.
There is a risk that Ukrainian security services will increase their terrorist activities against Russia, especially in the new regions of Russia. Ukraine will carry out these actions under a foreign flag. It will establish fake organizations that claim to be fighting to free the Crimea and Donbas from Russia, its “members” will commit terrorist acts and the official Kiev will claim it has nothing to do with it. If the future peace treaty provides for a harsh response from Russia to such actions, this could deter Ukrainian politicians from doing something foolish.
Who will be in power in Ukraine? It would be strange to expect the emergence of pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine in the next five to ten years. Therefore, the politics in Ukraine in the coming years will be determined by the struggle between “revanchists” and pragmatists.
The former will call for preparing a new war with Russia – at least to retake the Crimea, Donbas and Tauria. They will reject all economic, social and humanitarian contacts with Russia. These political forces will be supported by Western liberals.
The pragmatists will not make friends with Russia, but will make anti-Russian statements. Unlike the “revanchists” they will point out that a new conflict will bring no good to Ukraine, except for new dead and destruction. They will recognize that it is necessary to rebuild the country, that it requires money and that it is profitable to trade with Russia, rather than fight and that one can at least buy energy resources from there at an acceptable price.
Future Ukrainian pragmatists will recognize and convey to the people that it is necessary to negotiate with Russia and trade with it. The pragmatists will be supported by Western conservatives.
But where will the pragmatists in Ukraine come from? After all, the current politicians there are crazy. If the Ukrainian society and Western conservatives truly need pragmatic politicians, they will quickly emerge. And it does not have to be new faces. Ukrainian politicians have an incredible ability to change their opinions in an instant. One does not need to look far for examples – Petro Poroshenko managed to go from being a co-chair of the Party of Regions and the closest associate of Viktor Yushchenko during the “Orange Revolution” to a minister in the government of Nikolai Azarov.
If pragmatists in Ukraine hold power for a longer period, it will lead to the establishment of business-like relations with Russia and this would lay the foundation for a certain development of the relations.
Can Ukrainian society recover? Today, many Ukrainians believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia. The more severe defeats the Ukrainian armed forces suffer before a peace treaty is signed, the better. The Ukrainian people should not have the false feeling that the victory was stolen from them. The defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces should be a cold shower for the Ukrainian society. When the fervor of battle is over and the Ukrainians return to normal life, many of them will probably draw the right conclusions: that violence begets violence. That the brutality of the Maidan authorities against the residents of Odessa and Donbas will be reflected in the treatment of Ukrainian citizens. Then people will no longer want to fight and impose their ideals on others. If there is no enlightenment in the minds of the Ukrainians, a new conflict is inevitable.
After the peace treaty is signed, the Ukrainian state and Ukrainian society will stand at a crossroads. Either they will remain in the format of anti-Russia and prepare the ground for a new military confrontation or they will return to the format that the country was in from 1991 to 2014, which can be defined as: “Ukraine is not Russia, but it is also not Russia’s enemy.