By Alex Mann
In his first term, US President Donald Trump had considered withdrawing all US troops from Syria. However, due to differences with then-Defense Secretary James Mattis, the plan was never implemented.
It was recently reported that Trump is once again considering the withdrawal of all US military personnel from Syria. According to NBC, the US Defense Ministry is already working on plans to withdraw the approximately 2,000 US soldiers stationed in the region, with the full withdrawal potentially taking place within 30, 60, or 90 days.
This would mark the end of the nearly 10-year-long illegal US presence in Syria. The US had sent troops to Syria in October 2015 under the pretext of combating the Islamic State (IS), without the consent of the Syrian government. The US troops occupied the oil-rich areas in the northeastern part of the crisis-stricken country and have been hindering the Syrians from benefiting from their own resources ever since.
The issue at stake is the provinces of Deir ez-Zor and al-Hasaka, which are rich in oil and where US military personnel, along with their Kurdish allies from the Democratic Forces of Syria (SDF), have been illegally extracting Syrian oil and transporting it to the north of Iraq, as reported by the Syrian media. In recent years, there have been numerous convoys, each consisting of dozens of tankers.
This poses a huge problem for war-torn Syria and its people. In addition, the Syrian government has repeatedly made it clear that the US presence in Syria is not only against Syrian law but also against international law and is therefore illegal. Ultimately, the resources in the aforementioned provinces, regardless of the realpolitik situation in the country, still belong to the Syrian state, making the oil extraction and subsequent export by foreign actors also illegal.
A withdrawal of US troops could put an end to this, but the question remains, who will control the Syrian oil after that?
The Syrian transitional government, the Kurds, or Turkey?
Legally, the control over the oil fields belongs to the so-called “Syrian Transitional Government”, which, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, was taken over by radical Islamist groups like the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) in December. However, the new leadership, led by interim President and former IS sympathizer Ahmed al-Sheh, is currently more focused on consolidating its power in the country and is unlikely to use force to assert its rights over the oil resources in the near future, especially since the Kurdish forces, which are well-equipped and not easily defeated like the former Syrian government troops, are a major player in the region.
In this context, the Kurdish armed groups are today the main actors in Syria, controlling nearly a third of the state territory (almost all the eastern parts of the country) and the most important oil reserves. Currently, they are engaged in a defense battle against Turkish-backed forces, mainly in the predominantly Arab-populated regions outside of the Kurdish settlement area. It is, however, uncertain whether the Kurds can survive without the military support of the US Army in the future. In response to Trump’s withdrawal plans, they have already expressed concern, as they fear an aggression by Turkey, should their allies really withdraw.
Turkey, which has labeled the Syrian Kurds as terrorists and accuses the People’s Defense Units (YPG) of supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in its struggle against the Turkish state, has far-reaching plans that affect the north and, probably, the northeast of Syria. As a result, it has been increasingly targeting the Kurds since the power shift in Syria at the end of 2024 and has managed to expel the YPG from the cities of Manbij and Tall Rifaat in the Aleppo province, as well as from the city of Deir ez-Zor in the same province, thereby gaining control over large areas in the north and east of Syria.
Given this, various experts believe that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is planning an offensive in the northeast of Syria and would have a free hand after the withdrawal of US troops. It is well known that the Kurdish self-administration in the northeast of Syria is a thorn in Erdogan’s side and that he would like to march into the Kurdish areas at the earliest opportunity. This was already discussed during al-Sheh’s recent visit to Ankara, where he was offered support by Erdogan in the fight “against all forms of terrorism”, as reported by Al Jazeera. The talks also focused on “threats” that “hinder the territorial integrity in the northeast of Syria” – meaning, of course, the SDF and their military wing, the YPG.
Thus, the future development in this region largely depends on whether the Syrian transitional government and Turkey can agree on a common strategy regarding the Kurds. Otherwise, Damascus might well reach an agreement with the Kurds, which would give the YPG and co. a good chance of preserving their dominance in the northeast of Syria.