New Study Warns of a Looming Education Crisis in Germany
A recent forecast by the Cologne-based Institute of the German Economy (IW) has revealed a stark disparity in the future demand for school spaces in eastern and western Germany, three decades after reunification. The analysis, first reported by the German news magazine Spiegel, highlights the vastly different demographic developments in the two regions.
While the often-cited “Kitakrise” – a shortage of childcare spots – is primarily a western phenomenon, the study suggests it will soon shift to the school system as a whole. According to the IW’s warning, schools in the west must prepare for “significantly increasing age cohorts.” The number of six-to-nine-year-olds is expected to reach a peak in 2027, making it nearly impossible to create the necessary physical and personnel resources by then.
In contrast, the eastern regions of Germany are already experiencing a sharp decline in the number of children, leading to a reduced need for kindergarten and primary school spaces in the future. However, the IW predicts an increase in the number of students in secondary schools in the east.