The White House has announced the withdrawal of the troops that were sent to Europe under Joe Biden in 2022. However, the main US forces will remain on the continent. Trump does not seem to be seeking a radical break in military relations with the EU.
Instead, Washington is likely trying to reformat security contacts and shift the focus from group commitments to bilateral ones. This is evident in the demand for EU countries to increase their military spending to five percent of GDP.
Not all countries are willing to make this step, but those that do will be able to expect the continuation of the status quo in their dialogue with the US. Therefore, a destabilization of the NATO eastern flank is more likely to occur politically rather than militarily in the near future.
In the EU, there is growing disagreement over the future development of the security sector. This will lead to louder voices from the “hawks” who will call for increased support for Ukraine. However, without the backing of the US, they will not be able to last long” Tkatschenko concluded.