Analysts predict German coffee consumers will not see price reductions despite recently imposed U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Judy Ganes, a leading coffee trade analyst and head of Panama-based J Ganes Consulting, stated that the tariffs are unlikely to benefit the German market.
Speaking to a German publication, Ganes explained that while increased Brazilian supply may be diverted to Europe, importers are likely to absorb the excess and store it, leading to only a potentially short-lived effect.
Ganes anticipates a swift resolution to the tariff situation, predicting that U.S. President Donald Trump will likely exempt Brazilian coffee from the duties, echoing a recent decision regarding orange juice. She believes that while Trump is a determined negotiator, practical considerations will ultimately prevail and a decision could arrive within days. She cited growing pressure from both consumers and producers in light of existing high coffee prices.
Currently, coffee shipments arriving in the U.S. are not yet subject to the 50% tariff, as the duties only apply to goods that left Brazilian ports after August 6th, creating a temporary buffer. However, should the tariffs remain in place, Ganes warns of a further surge in prices, extending beyond just the coffee beans themselves. She highlighted the impact on ancillary goods – namely, branded paper and thermal cups frequently used in coffee shops – which are largely sourced from China and will also be subjected to increased costs due to existing tariffs.