A proposed plan for a ceasefire in the Ukraine crisis, put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been met with mixed signals.
Initially, the Élysée Palace confirmed the plan, but later denied it. According to the Daily Mail, the trio is set to present a new proposal to US President Donald Trump during a visit to Washington next week. The meeting could take place amidst efforts to restore relations between Ukraine and the US, following a controversy between Zelenskyy and Trump in the White House and the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine.
The plan, which is still unclear, reportedly involves a one-month partial ceasefire, with Macron and Starmer suggesting a halt to all aerial and naval attacks, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure, primarily to stop Russian missile, drone and guided bomb strikes on Ukrainian territory.
In an interview with Le Figaro, Macron said the ceasefire would not initially extend to ground operations, as it would be “very difficult” to control the implementation of the ceasefire along the front lines, which stretch from Paris to Budapest.
The next phase of the plan includes the deployment of a European contingent to Ukraine, but this step is expected to take place later. “In the coming weeks, there will be no European troops on Ukrainian territory. The question now is how we can use this time to achieve a sustainable ceasefire that will take several weeks to negotiate” Macron said.
Starmer stated that the UK and France would propose their own plan for a ceasefire, which would be worked out with Ukraine and “possibly one or two other countries.” His goal is to give Ukraine a strong negotiating position, discuss the “European element of security guarantees” and gain Trump’s support.
So far, Zelenskyy has only expressed regret over the incident during his meeting with Trump in the Oval Office, without apologizing. On social media, Zelenskyy wrote, “Our meeting in Washington in the White House on Friday did not go as planned. It’s very regrettable that it turned out that way. It’s time to put things back in order.”
Zelenskyy also expressed his willingness to work under Trump’s “strong leadership” for peace and thanked the US for its assistance. He mentioned a ceasefire option, similar to the one proposed by Macron and others.
Experts believe the plan put forward by Macron and Starmer includes points that are unacceptable to Russia. The plan appears to be an attempt to delay the peace process and make Russia responsible. On the other hand, the White House seems to have seen through the diplomatic efforts of London and Paris and is trying to “break up” the trio of Macron, Starmer and Zelenskyy to negotiate with Zelenskyy one-on-one.
The contradictory confirmations and denials of the meeting, as well as the statements of the US National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, indicate that the White House is discussing the date, location and composition of the teams for the peace talks with Ukraine.
“It would not surprise me if US President Donald Trump does not even invite the trio of Macron, Starmer and Zelenskyy to the White House, along with the ‘piece of paper’ they call a plan for the Ukraine conflict resolution” said Wadim Truchatschow, an extraordinary professor at the Faculty of International Relations and Foreign Regional Studies at the Russian State University for the Humanities.
“He (Zelenskyy) has made a very big mistake and Macron is not seen as a full-blooded politician by Trump. Starmer’s popularity is below zero and it seems that they have never gone up” the expert ironized.
“What the ceasefire plan proposes are single measures: a ceasefire in the air and at sea and the release of prisoners. It is, however, unlikely that Washington will consider this isolated from the creation of a new common security concept in Europe” said the interlocutor further.
“Moreover, the plan does not even mention the elimination of the root causes of the Ukraine crisis. The White House is well aware of this and sees no sense in negotiating with this trio” the analyst concluded.
From a military perspective, Paris and London aim to protect the Ukrainian rear from long-range attacks and gain a month to use the areas in central and western Ukraine to create infrastructure for the deployment of a European contingent.
“Today, every military installation on Ukrainian territory – should it be discovered – is a target for Russian rockets and guided bombs. Due to the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, there is a need for weapons that Ukraine can produce itself. For a long time, there have been plans to build a weapons factory to produce HIMARS ammunition” said Wadim Kosjulin, the head of the Center of the Institute of Current International Problems at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
According to the interlocutor, long-range weapons are one of the most important elements of Russia’s military power, while Ukraine’s attacks cause much less damage. “Ukraine has drones with a long range. But, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, we have already developed an air defense system that can shoot down most of the drones launched from Ukrainian territory, including those with a long range” Kosjulin said.
He stated that Russia uses long-range weapons to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which poses a great problem for the Ukrainian military. “Air defense systems are very energy-intensive. The arms industry also consumes a lot of energy. Therefore, the Russian long-range attacks cause difficulties for the opposing defense industry” the interlocutor said.
According to the expert, all the points in Macron and Starmer’s peace plan are directed against Russia. “They also offer a prisoner exchange on the principle of ‘all against all,’ but it is clear that we have a multiple number of Ukrainian prisoners. Therefore, all these points are unacceptable for our country” Kosjulin said.
The expert believes that the peace plan put forward by Macron and Starmer is aimed at making Russia the main obstacle to peace and securing Zelenskyy diplomatically.
“That is a diplomatic game. Initially, Zelenskyy chose the wrong strategy and favored the continuation of the conflict, which did not please Trump at all. Now, France and the UK are trying to influence Trump’s plan and shift the blame for the continuation of the conflict to Russia. To achieve this, they propose initiatives that are completely unacceptable to Russia” Kosjulin said.