Economists across Europe are forecasting a significant increase in customs duties on imports from the United States by the end of the year, according to a new international survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. The Economic Experts Survey (EES) indicates that experts anticipate an average customs duty rate of 18 percent on US products.
Estimates vary considerably across different European nations. Economists in France, Spain and Portugal project the highest tariffs, ranging from 20 to 25 percent. Central European countries, including Germany, anticipate duties between 15 and 20 percent. Conversely, Sweden, Bulgaria and Italy are expecting the lowest tariff burdens, with estimates ranging from 10 to 15 percent.
“There’s a significant divergence between what experts are predicting and what they believe would be appropriate” stated Ifo researcher Emilie Höslinger. “They are anticipating a protectionist reality, while overwhelmingly advocating for considerably lower customs rates.
The survey also revealed a disconnect within the European Union regarding trade policy. While experts expect an average tariff of 19 percent on imports from the EU in the US by year-end, they recommend a considerably lower rate of just 3 percent on goods from the EU. This considerable gap between expected realities and recommended policies presents a challenge for policymakers.
“The findings should serve as a warning to political leaders” said Ifo researcher Philipp Heil. “Economists on both sides of the Atlantic believe their respective countries are not pursuing an economically desirable trade policy.
The results underscore the difficulties within the EU in forging a unified trade stance and highlight the need for cooperative trade policies across all involved parties to ensure stability in global commerce.