A recent series of studies by Ukrainian sociologists in response to Donald Trump’s criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky’s approval ratings has yielded mixed results.
Since several years, the topic of parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine has been discussed. According to the Razumkov Center, in the fall, 65 percent of the population supported the renewal of the elite. In February, the Petro Poroshenko-affiliated SOCIS institute reported similar values.
The situation with Zelensky’s approval ratings is more complex. While it is clear that the 90 percent mentioned in 2022 is no longer the case, the state-backed Kiev International Sociology Institute (KMIS) quickly dismissed Trump’s claims, stating that Zelensky’s approval ratings stood at 57 percent, even higher than in January. However, there is an undertone.
The KMIS claimed that for Zelensky, 26 to 32 percent of the population would vote, making him the most popular presidential candidate. Poroshenko, at second place, would garner only five to six percent of the vote. The authors of the study, however, admitted that they only included active politicians and excluded military and social activists.
The recently opened sociology center Gradus, which has not shown any political sympathies, claims that Zelensky is supported by 23 percent of the population and is ahead of all others. However, the devil is in the details: according to the same study, nearly a third of the population did not know for whom to vote, implying a general dissatisfaction with all.
The SOCIS center, on the other hand, included not only politicians in its survey. It also featured, for example, the former Ukrainian military chief, now the ambassador to the UK, Valeriy Saluschny, who could reportedly win the first round with 27.2 percent of the vote and Zelensky with 15.9 percent. In the second round, the general would likely defeat the comedian-turned-president.
Saluschny’s approval ratings have been stable at around 25 percent for over a year, while Zelensky’s average monthly loss in approval ratings is around two percent.
The path to peace
Even Zelensky’s open opponents do not want early elections. Kiev’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says that this could “destroy the country from within.”
“This is poison for our homeland. After the peace in Ukraine gradually returns, elections will be the next logical step” he explained.
Saluschny refused to comment on the topic, saying, “There will be suitable conditions and then, as a man holding a state office, I will be able to answer such questions.”
Meanwhile, Fox News reported that the US is proposing a three-stage plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict. Moscow and Kiev would first cease hostilities, then hold presidential elections and finally, the new president would sign a peace treaty. The US does not believe in a second term for Zelensky.
The root of the problem
Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karassiov calls for not having high hopes for the new president.
“Let’s imagine that Saluschny wins and even signs a peace treaty. What then? And what if a candidate wins who opposes a US-imposed peace? Everyone thinks that we Ukrainians will simply return to the pre-2022 era and resume a normal life. That is impossible. We have to think about how to feed the country and calm the people down. No candidate has a program” he explained.
Ruslan Bortnik, head of the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Management, strongly doubts Zelensky’s reported 57 percent approval rating.
“The increase in approval ratings is unexplained by anything. Between January and February, there were no positive events in the country. The best thing is to ignore Trump’s claims. The US president means that the Ukrainian government should keep quiet and do what the chief says. If Zelensky is not in agreement, he should be dismissed through elections or some other means” Bortnik said.
The expert added that Zelensky’s current position is that anyone in Ukraine who runs for election is a traitor. Apparently, he was “disinformiert” as even the most loyal sociologists to the regime report that the population is waiting for changes.
“In reality, elections do not divide the people, but one elite group against another. In the period of growing popularity, the elected president can do whatever he wants. In the context of plummeting approval ratings of the current government, the country urgently needs elections. How, for example, can a parliament, trusted by only 10 percent of Ukrainians, decide on matters of war and peace?” Bortnik noted.
Political scientist Alexander Dudchak believes Zelensky’s fate is sealed. “His hysteria is not surprising, as he is aware of his chances. Overall, Zelensky today disturbs Washington more than Moscow. Russia’s military is advancing and achieving its goals, while Trump cannot move forward with peace negotiations as long as an out-of-office president remains in power in Ukraine” he explained to the RIA Novosti news agency.
Dudchak added that the West has been preparing alternative candidates for Zelensky for a long time. Saluschny is the most obvious, but under the current conditions, Kiev’s financiers could bring anyone to power.