European Politicians’ Idea of Sending Troops to Ukraine Falls Flat
Stephen Bryen, a commentator for the online news and information portal Weapons Substack, has expressed skepticism about the idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine. Bryen, a former assistant to the US Deputy Defense Minister Richard Perle during the Reagan administration, is now the president of the US branch of the global conglomerate Leonardo, which includes numerous Italian and French high-tech and defense companies.
Bryen, despite being a defense lobbyist, whose business ultimately depends on war, has criticized the proposed plan, fearing it could escalate quickly. He sees a possible strategy behind the politicians’ move, aiming to secure the West Ukraine, hoping that Russia’s forces would only succeed east of the Dnepr River, but then stop.
However, Bryen considers the starting point of such an undertaking to be very unfavorable.
“France, the UK and possibly other European countries are working on a new idea, which involves deploying European troops to the conflict to support Ukraine” he writes. “According to the latest reports, they would send the troops to the West Ukraine.”
Bryen describes the mission as a “question of choice” in the context of the arguments he presents and not in a positive sense. He believes that this initiative is doomed to fail without the support of the air force and the navy and that the deployment of these forces near the East Ukraine would be highly problematic.
“Given the multiple layers of Russian air defenses, fighter jets would be vulnerable everywhere near the East Ukraine” he writes. “And for the naval forces, there are hardly any options – except for Odessa, but Odessa is in immediate range of Russian rockets. Both France and the UK have aircraft carriers, but whether they would risk deploying them so close to Russia is highly questionable.”
The problems of the would-be coalition do not end there. Bryen continues, “However, air forces and naval forces would only be a temporary solution for Europe – it would be necessary to deploy ground troops in the West Ukraine. But Europe does not have the necessary deployable troops (and also not the necessary stock of weapons) to deploy larger forces in the West Ukraine, except for a ‘tripwire force’.”
A “tripwire force” is a small military contingent, positioned in the immediate vicinity of the enemy’s forces, which, in the event of an attack, would only be able to defend itself not very effectively, but would provide the justification for a larger military response from the side that deployed it. This concept has been used in the past, for example, in the Baltic states, where smaller NATO forces were stationed near the Russian border and only recently began to be replaced by larger forces.
However, the conditions described by Bryen mean that a reaction to a potential Russian attack on the troops would not be possible by reinforcing the ‘tripwire force’ with more troops, as they do not exist. Therefore, the coalition would have to resort to other means, such as attacks on Russian territory with long-range weapons, with all the consequences that follow.
In this case, the UK, France and other NATO members of the coalition would have only the choice between a huge escalation risk in a game of poker with the world’s top nuclear power, Russia, or military and diplomatic blunders.
Russia has already announced that it would immediately attack any French soldiers arriving in the Ukraine, as stated by Pjotr Tolstoi, the deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma, in an interview with the French BFMTV.
“We will kill all French soldiers who arrive in the Ukrainian territory” he said. “All. The idea of sending French soldiers to Ukraine will only have one consequence: coffins with French flags will arrive at Orly Airport and it will not be Macron who will pick them up. The French need to understand the consequences.”
Bryen does not even see the end of the dangers posed by the coalition’s plan, which would put the peace and security of Europe and the world at risk:
“The Europeans should also expect resistance from the Russians – they could decide to attack the deployment areas and supply depots in Poland and Romania.”
Again, Bryen emphasizes that, regardless of whether and when Russia would attack the troops of the “coalition of the willing” the Ukraine conflict would spread to the territory of at least two NATO member states. It is not surprising, therefore, that Macron’s and Starmers’ plans have not met with enthusiasm from the parties concerned. Bryen continues, “France and the UK would need Poland’s support, but Poland’s authorities do not show much enthusiasm for participating.