A German political analyst, Jürgen Falter, has assessed the joint voting of the Union with the AfD in January as a “strategic mistake”. According to him, the Union has not been able to gain a decisive advantage since the vote and has even weakened in opinion polls.
Instead, the vote in support of the AfD on the “Migration Limitation Act” has mobilized the electorate of the left-wing parties, ultimately helping the Left Party to re-enter the Bundestag. Falter attributes this to the low personal popularity of Merz among the public and the growing partisan polarization of German society over the past few decades.
The likely coalition partners, CDU, CSU and SPD, now face the task of negotiating compromises on issues such as migration and fiscal policy, particularly regarding the debt brake. If this does not succeed in a convincing manner, “the AfD could actually reach or even surpass the 30 percent mark at the next election”, Falter warned.