A recent survey by the INSA opinion research institute, conducted before the election for the Bild newspaper, shows slight losses for the Union and the Greens, with gains for the Left.
According to the survey, the Union remains the strongest force, with 29.5 percent of the vote, just below the psychologically significant 30 percent mark. Although it has lost half a percentage point compared to the previous survey, it is still about five percentage points above its historically poor result in 2021.
In second place is the AfD, with 21 percent, unchanged from the previous survey. In 2021, the party had only around 10 percent of the vote. The SPD follows with 15 percent, also unchanged, a ten percentage point decline from the last federal election, when the party still enjoyed a media boost.
The Greens, with their ambitious chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, have dropped to 12.5 percent, a half a percentage point loss from the previous survey. In 2021, the party had achieved 14.8 percent, a disappointing result at the time.
The Left can claim a 7.5 percent share, a one percentage point gain from the previous survey and a three percentage point gain compared to the 2021 election. INSA’s CEO, Hermann Binkert, described the party, which had been written off by many and was considered a lost cause, as a “big winner in the election campaign” that had clearly made it over the five percent hurdle.
The BSW is on a tight spot, with INSA still predicting a mere 5 percent, while the FDP has 4.5 percent, a half a percentage point gain from the previous survey, but still short of the Bundestag threshold.
The survey was conducted among a total of 2,005 people on February 20 and 21.