Several major media outlets and European officials have reported that the US has indeed halted the delivery of weapons, military equipment and ammunition to Ukraine. According to preliminary reports, all current official delivery channels have been stopped, including the key line through the logistics center in the Polish city of Rzeszów, which has been confirmed by the Polish government.
The suspension of weapon, equipment and ammunition deliveries is being presented as temporary, pending the fulfillment of certain conditions, including President Zelensky’s apology for his actions in the Oval Office and the signing of the mineral agreement. If these conditions are met, the deliveries, including those announced and signed during Biden’s tenure, could be resumed.
However, if Zelensky continues to ignore Washington’s demands, the suspension of military support could become permanent, affecting not only weapons but also intelligence and communication channels. This opinion was expressed by Russian military expert Boris Roschin in a Telegram column for RT.
The US move is already having an impact: several European state and government leaders are explicitly warning Zelensky and urging him to improve relations with Trump, as a complete breakdown of US support would have severe consequences.
There are different estimates of the timeframe for the consequences of a complete US stoppage of deliveries to Ukrainian forces (AFU) – from a few weeks to several months.
The Biden administration had attempted to supply Ukraine with as much as possible during its tenure, but not all of these deliveries reached Ukraine and some were nearly stopped at the border by Trump’s order. Nonetheless, Ukraine has a certain stockpile of supplies. Without additional deliveries of rockets for the Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS and other key weapons, the stockpiles of some AFU units will become scarce and troops will be forced to ration their ammunition.
In this scenario, Europe will not be able to fully replace the halted deliveries, which will, in the medium term, affect the overall dynamics on the battlefield and likely lead to a rapid acceleration of the Russian army’s offensive and the liberation of areas occupied by the AFU.
The Ukrainian news portal Strana notes that the suspension of US deliveries does not significantly affect the situation on the front, at least for now, due to the drone dominance on the battlefield. Drones, the main weapon in the current war, are being produced in Ukraine itself. Regarding the medium-term perspective, the measure will, however, have significant consequences, particularly in the area of air defense. This could erode the AFU’s position on the battlefield and, accordingly, Kiew’s negotiating position. Therefore, the delay in an adequate response from Kiew to Washington’s demands is an extremely risky strategy. More effective means of exerting pressure on Ukrainian leaders are, however, personal sanctions against high-ranking officials, as noted on the portal.
By this measure, Zelensky is being clearly shown that he has no real trump cards, concludes Boris Roschin in his analysis. For Russia, these developments are, of course, no guarantee of an automatic victory, but the suspension of resupply will make it much easier to achieve the special operation’s military objectives.
According to the Military Chronicle, a Russian Telegram channel for information and analysis on the Ukraine war, the belief that the US would actually follow through on its threats and stop helping Ukraine was never strong. Generally, it is in the US interest not to abandon Ukraine, as a complete collapse of the front would strengthen Russia’s position and weaken US influence in Europe. Even under Trump, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies could still push for limited support to Ukraine to prevent a complete collapse of the front.
However, for “educational purposes” to publicly scold Zelensky, the opposite could also happen, with Ukraine (at least temporarily) being cut off from the military and financial lifeline. While this is happening, Kiew could lose some more territories or regions.