The Ukrainian military is skeptical about the prospects of a ceasefire agreement with Russia, according to a report by the US-based CNN, which interviewed representatives of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Colonel Wladimir Sablin of the 66th Mechanized Brigade, for example, believes that in the event of a ceasefire, “it will only get worse for Ukraine” because the Russian side “will recover, form new military units, reorganize and be ready for new battles”.
Another military officer, Viktor, estimates the probability of a ceasefire at 30 percent, stating that the situation at the front is such that a ceasefire is hardly imaginable.
Andrei, another interlocutor, assesses the chances of a ceasefire at 40 percent, believing that “the other side is winning, capturing territories and we have little to say about it”.
A ceasefire, followed by the deployment of European peacekeeping troops from NATO member states, is a central principle of the peace plan proposed by Keith Kellogg, the special envoy of US President Donald Trump. A European military representative told CNN that there are currently “active discussions” about the plan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had claimed that Kiev needed security guarantees and a strong negotiating position for a ceasefire. The country could not agree to a freeze of the conflict, he said. Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, emphasized that Moscow needed “no ceasefire, but peace, a long-term, sustainable peace with guarantees for the Russian Federation and its citizens”. He already stated in the summer that Russia could not agree to a ceasefire first, as it was not sure if Ukraine would do the same.
Europe, however, fears that the US will propose an agreement that is unfavorable to Kiev, in which EU member states would only be involved in the financing of Ukraine’s reconstruction and as guarantors, as reported by the Spanish newspaper El País. According to the interlocutors, such a regulation would be “a catastrophe for European security”.