A group of politicians and experts have expressed concerns over the potential of a large-scale refugee movement out of Ukraine in the event of a US alliance in the talks over the country’s future.
According to Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU foreign policy expert, the Ukrainian society will eventually reach a tipping point, at which a part of the population will continue to fight as partisans, while a larger part, particularly women, children and the elderly, will have to flee. This is because the Ukrainian population will not want to live under Russian occupation, subject to torture, terror and rape.
Scenarios have been proposed, foreseeing large-scale refugee movements of between 10 and 20 million people.
Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a FDP defense policy expert, shares this view, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to encourage Ukrainians to leave their country, both for ethnic reasons and to put pressure on the West.
Winfried Kluth, the chairman of the German Council for Integration and Migration, concurs with the refugee scenario, noting that the current fighting in Ukraine has already triggered a significant refugee movement. Kluth stated that due to the war experiences, people in Ukraine have a clear understanding of what to expect from Russian troops and terrorist groups in terms of oppression, violence and torture, making a massive refugee wave a realistic prospect.
Meanwhile, the SPD has cautioned against spreading panic, stating that speculations over refugee scenarios do not help, neither for Ukraine’s supporters nor the country itself. The party’s faction vice, Dirk Wiese, emphasized the need to stabilize the external political uncertainty triggered by US President Trump’s behavior in the Ukraine issue and to achieve a united and strong Europe. Wiese added that this can only be achieved by not sketching out doomsday scenarios.