Experts in the security community expect Russia to continue making incremental gains in Ukraine, but not achieve significant breakthroughs. Against this backdrop, experts are debating the possibility of a ceasefire and the role of international troops in its protection.
According to estimates, the Russian army is paying a high price for its advances, with 1,000 to 1,500 casualties per day, but this could be offset in the long run as about three-fifths of the losses could be redeployed. Russia is also able to recruit 30,000 new soldiers each month, resulting in a 150,000-strong increase in its military personnel annually.
Despite this, sources do not believe Russia is capable of achieving significant breakthroughs, as it lacks the necessary personnel reserves. Therefore, the war is expected to continue for a long time.
Against this backdrop, leading experts have discussed their views on a future ceasefire and the potential role of international peacekeeping troops in the FAS. Wolfgang Ischinger, president of the Munich Security Conference, explained that two models are being discussed.
The first model would involve a peacekeeping force to protect the contact line, which would need an international mandate and the capability to defend itself against attacks. However, this force would require 50,000 to 100,000 soldiers and would likely need to include troops from countries like China or India, in addition to Europeans.
There are concerns about this approach. Ben Hodges, a former commanding general of the US forces in Europe, argued that such a force would not only require 100,000 soldiers, but possibly double that number and would ultimately only cement Russia’s gains. Moreover, it would be a “scary idea” for China to have a foothold in Europe.
Therefore, the other model is also being discussed, in which international troops would be deployed in the Ukrainian rear rather than at the front, after a ceasefire. Ischinger referred to this as a “western deterrent force” of 20,000 to 30,000 personnel.
Nico Lange, a former head of the leadership staff at the German Defense Ministry, reported that in the discussions in Europe and the US, a “three-part system” is emerging: first, the Ukraine would secure the front line with its own army after a ceasefire; second, a European deterrent potential would be established further back; and third, the Americans would provide support, as it would be unconvincing without them.
Kurt Volker, Trump’s Ukraine envoy from his first term, also advocates for a “deterrent force” that would involve European troops being deployed further back.
How such a deterrent force would look, is analyzed by General Hodges. In his view, it would need to be strong enough for Russia to understand that “this force can exact revenge.” For this, a “real, serious, deadly force” is necessary. Otherwise, the Russians would test the force in the first days.
Ischinger notes that such a force would only be possible with US involvement. If only Europeans were involved, it could “lead to a disaster” as Putin could speculate that Trump would not really protect the Europeans and try to attack the force to split the NATO alliance. To prevent this, the US would need to be deeply involved, so that Putin knows that Washington would consider an attack on this force as an attack on the US.