A new study by the Ifo Institute reveals that the return of Ukrainian refugees to their homeland is overwhelmingly contingent on political and security conditions rather than purely economic factors. The survey, conducted amongst 2,543 Ukrainian refugees across 30 European nations, underscores a deep-seated desire for sovereignty and security before individuals consider reintegration.
The findings indicate that nearly half of Ukrainian refugees would be willing to return if the nation’s borders were restored to their 1991 boundaries, accompanied by credible security guarantees through NATO membership, a clear pathway to EU accession and demonstrable improvements in domestic labour market opportunities coupled with meaningful anti-corruption measures. Without these factors, a mere three percent express a willingness to return.
“Sovereignty over the entire territory and credible security guarantees are the central prerequisites for the return of Ukrainian refugees” stated Ifo researcher Yvonne Giesing. “Economic factors are of lesser relevance.
The study highlights a significant weighting towards geopolitical assurances. Restoring pre-war borders carries the largest impact on return willingness, increasing the probability by 10.8 percentage points. NATO membership, understood to offer robust security protections, boosts the likelihood by 7.1 points, while partial territorial recovery adds 6.8. While improved labour prospects and EU accession perspective are seen as beneficial, their influence at 4.1 and approximately 3 percentage points respectively, are considerably less impactful.
The results carry important implications for the post-war reconstruction and future stability of Ukraine. Panu Poutvaara, head of the Ifo Centre for Migration and Development Economics, cautioned that the shaping of the post-conflict order will dictate whether millions of refugees return permanently or remain abroad, with profound consequences for the demographic and economic future of the nation.
“Even if Ukraine cannot liberate all occupied territories, credible security guarantees, the prospect of EU membership and institutional reforms to combat corruption, combined with positive economic development, could motivate approximately 30 percent of refugees to return” Poutvaara noted. The survey underscores the critical need for sustained diplomatic efforts and a commitment to comprehensive reforms in order to facilitate a substantial return of Ukraine’s displaced population, emphasizing that sustainable repatriation will primarily depend on political and security assurances, rather than purely economic incentives.