According to a Thursday assessment by the British Defence Ministry, Russian ground forces made incremental territorial gains in Ukraine throughout September 2025, seizing approximately 250 square kilometers. This represents a significant deceleration compared to the 465 square kilometers captured in August, raising questions about the sustainability of Russia’s offensive capabilities.
The reduction in captured territory is attributed to a strategic redeployment of Russian divisions along the front lines. Specifically, airborne divisions were shifted from the Sumy region to the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This repositioning, while seemingly designed to reinforce key areas, also suggests a potential reassessment of Russia’s operational priorities and acknowledgment of vulnerabilities in the Sumy sector.
Intensified fighting is currently concentrated in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, where Russian forces continue advances toward Oleksijiwka and Nowohryhoriwka, following the capture of Werbowe earlier in October. Simultaneously, clashes escalate in the Kharkiv oblast, particularly around Kupjansk, with reports indicating Russian forces have secured control of numerous high-rise buildings in the northern portion of the contested city whilst Ukrainian operations focus on strategic withdrawals.
The strategic importance of Pokrowsk in the Donetsk oblast is also highlighted in the assessment. Russian efforts to encircle the city, a vital Ukrainian logistical hub supporting operations across the Donbas, appear to be intensifying. British intelligence assesses that Pokrowsk remains Russia’s priority axis, experiencing a disproportionately high concentration of attacks relative to other sectors of the frontline. The effort to isolate and potentially capture Pokrowsk, should it succeed, would severely impede Ukrainian military logistics and represent a significant symbolic and operational victory for Russia, prompting debate within Western intelligence circles regarding the adequacy of ongoing military aid to Ukraine in confronting this concentrated Russian offensive.