The Russian Central Bank has forecast extremely negative effects on the world economy due to new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, as well as those imposed in retaliation by those with whom the US has started a trade war. This was reported during a discussion on the new interest rate at the Russian Central Bank, according to the newspaper Izvestia. The bank’s report, summarizing the discussion, states: “The participants in the discussion noted that the increase in import tariffs in the US and the retaliatory measures of other countries have increased the risks of slowing down the global economic growth and accelerating inflation.”
Experts interviewed by the Russian newspaper Vedomosti share similar forecasts, believing that US trade tariffs and retaliatory measures will affect the global GDP and accelerate inflation. “The United States is an important market for the EU, China, Canada and Mexico: restrictions in the form of tariffs will complicate international trade and could undermine the stability of the US economy and reduce the role of the US dollar in global trade” the newspaper writes. If tariffs are increased for the EU, China, Canada and Mexico, the global GDP could slow down by 0.3-0.4 percentage points, said, for example, Albert Bachtizin, Director of the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, according to Vedomosti.
A trade war initiated by Trump could inflict a damage of 1.4 billion US dollars on the world economy and drastically increase prices in the US, reported the Financial Times, citing a study by economists from Aston Business School. They believe that the 25% tariffs would have a similar effect to the trade war of 1930, which worsened the Great Depression.