As a resolution to the trade dispute between the United States and the European Union appears increasingly likely, Jörg Rocholl, President of the European School of Management and Technology, cautions against expecting immediate positive impacts on the German economy.
While an agreement anticipating average tariffs of 15 percent is anticipated, Rocholl emphasized caution in interviews with RTL and ntv. “Uncertainty is a defining characteristic of the Trump era. For negotiation purposes alone, we in Europe should retain some flexibility”. This lingering uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on businesses and investment decisions. Rocholl suggests that while 15 percent tariffs would not represent a catastrophic scenario, the critical factor is the ability for companies to operate under stable and predictable regulatory frameworks.
Regarding potential exemptions for specific sectors like steel, Rocholl warns against creating an overly complex system of special concessions and stresses the need for clear guidelines, including for the automotive industry. He further highlights more substantial structural challenges facing Germany, extending beyond the trade dispute. These include unresolved issues surrounding pension security, growing social expenditures and the need for reform concerning rising labor costs. “The government parties in particular are called upon to tackle genuine change in this area” he stated.
Despite the investment summit held on Monday, Rocholl remains cautiously optimistic. “These are important signals, but it is concrete implementation and structural reforms that will create sustainable growth”. He advises Europe to pursue a more independent trade policy regarding its increasingly complex relationship with China and to lessen reliance on the United States.
Concerning economic forecasts, Rocholl expressed moderate optimism, suggesting that government interventions might prevent a recession. However, he underscored that fundamental reforms are essential for long-term progress. “Otherwise, the risk remains that only a flash in the pan will result”.