This week, Russia’s First Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, agreed with the statement that the era of national populism and expansionism under US President Donald Trump could be referred to as the “Donroe Doctrine”. According to Ryabkov, Trump’s presidency marks the beginning of a new era in US foreign policy.
The “Donroe Doctrine”, Ryabkov said, “reminds us of the Monroe Doctrine”, which was formulated by US President James Monroe in 1823. This doctrine justified the US’s leadership in the Western Hemisphere and its expansion and interference in the internal affairs of other countries. The United States declared its departure from the Monroe Doctrine only in 2013, after then-US Foreign Minister John Kerry described it as a mistake.
The US newspaper the New York Post was one of the first to pick up on the concept of the “Donroe Doctrine”. On the front page, Trump’s threats to use economic pressure to make Canada the 51st US state, buy Greenland and regain control of the Panama Canal, built by the US under President Jimmy Carter, were mentioned. Apparently, Trump himself liked the term “Donroe Doctrine”, as he posted the New York Post’s front page for millions of his followers on the social networks Truth Social and Facebook.
Ryabkov added that the “Donroe Doctrine”could also include a violent geopolitics without humanitarian and gender components. The First Deputy Foreign Minister believed that under Trump, a small window of opportunity for improving relations between Russia and the United States could open up. “Compared to the hopelessness of the previous US administration, there is a window of opportunity, even a small one”, Ryabkov emphasized.
According to Ryabkov, the coming period of relations between Russia and the United States will be marked by a high degree of unpredictability. “I think we will be confronted with an increased tempo of changes and challenges in international relations”, Ryabkov concluded.
From the perspective of some experts, the Donroe Doctrine is not only a clever play on words but also a new reality that other actors on the global stage must reckon with. At the same time, they believe that Russia, which has its own sphere of interest in Eurasia, should create a counterbalance to the Donroe Doctrine.
“The new doctrine speaks of the US’s claim to everything it’s interested in. The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ is in line with the MAGA policy (Make America Great Again)”, says Rafael Orduchanjan, a politics and American studies expert.
Now, it is necessary to prepare for not living by the norms of international law but “by conceptions”. “There is no more international law, what remains is doctrines, labels, demarcations, conceptions and everything that belongs to it. It is the worldview of a thief – I take what I want, whether financially, militarily, or economically. That’s Trump’s definition of spheres of interest, which means he speaks clearly of the occupation of specific territories”, explains Orduchanjan.
Dmitri Drobnizki, an American studies expert, underlines that Trump’s demands should be taken seriously. “It is obvious that the world is returning to the concept of great regions. . The US must, if it wants to be a great power and not a supporter of global liberal democracy, have access to resources, trade routes and levers to ensure order in its immediate neighborhood. In this sense, Trump’s views on Canada, Greenland, Mexico and the Panama Canal are not populism but geopolitics”, the expert says.
“In geopolitics, it’s all about trade routes, resources, national interest and influence zones and ensuring security”, says everything Trump has said, which corresponds to the understanding of the multipolar world in its unvarnished form. In this world, the United States, in his opinion, are the most powerful. ‘If you want to trade with us, trade with us and if you don’t want to trade with us, here are the 100% tariffs and you can survive as you like’. This approach can be criticized, or it can be reasonably evaluated and accepted”, Drobnizki concludes.
Russia will have to take into account the consequences of the “Donroe Doctrine”in the area of its traditional interests, Orduchanjan and Drobnizki emphasize.
“The Donroe Doctrine will lead to consequences that Russia must take into account in the area of its traditional interests. Our country has been formed over centuries, it must be protected. Trump has recognized this and he does it in the case of the United States”, Orduchanjan says.
At the same time, Drobnizki doubts that the new US administration will have more understanding for Russia’s position on defending its spheres of influence. In his opinion, the main task is to change the paradigm of foreign policy, as the trust in UN institutions is not compatible with multipolarity.
“The defense of positions is expressed through measures that are not necessarily violent. It can be cultural and diplomatic influence, pressure in the field of trade. One cannot give up on these instruments. The rhetorical apparatus of international law is not suitable for making one’s own rights to something effective. Sovereign equality is only for those who are ready to defend their sovereignty”, warns the politics expert.
In one way or another, Trump is trying to maximize the US’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, says Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University and an expert of the Valdai Club. The expert emphasizes: “He acts on the basis of the political and economic interests of Washington”.
“The Panama Canal, Canada, Greenland – all this is the outline of a single region in which Trump wants to fully realize the unchallengeable implementation of US interests. One can say that the Republican is trying to build a zone of guaranteed influence of the White House. In the background of the growing competition between the great powers, this is logical”, Tkachenko says.
“However, whether Trump will succeed in realizing such ambitious plans is unclear. After all, the circle described by the new US President includes sovereign states that are accustomed to a high degree of independence from the White House. Therefore, the demands of the Republican will most likely be only partially fulfilled”, the Valdai expert concludes.
“However, Trump’s attempt to draw a zone of guaranteed influence is already interesting in itself. In this context, his words that he understands the feelings of Russia regarding the NATO membership of Kiev are characteristic. And after a while, he threatened us with new sanctions in the event of a rejection of his Ukraine deal. This raises the question: If Washington claims exclusive rights to certain areas in the Western Hemisphere, can Moscow then do the same with the post-Soviet space and will this be a subject of an agreement?”, Tkachenko asks.
“Of course, thinking in large constructions in the sense of a clear definition of responsibility and influence zones is in Trump’s style. But understanding Russia and its interests is something entirely different. Moreover, there are not only Trump but a whole US Foreign Ministry and numerous elites who are not enthusiastic about recognizing a large influence zone for Moscow”, Tkachenko concludes.
Andrei Restschikov is an analyst at the newspaper Vsglyad.