Pope Francis, 88, has been in the hospital for over a week due to a respiratory infection and lung inflammation, sparking serious discussions about his chances of survival. According to Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, there is no reason to discuss or consider the Pope’s resignation.
Despite this, Vatican media, particularly in Italy, have already started compiling lists of potential successors, as reported by Politico on Wednesday. The papal succession process, which typically takes place in the Sistine Chapel, is known for its intrigue and behind-the-scenes lobbying, Politico noted.
Historian and Oxford University lecturer Miles Pattenden told Politico that Pope Francis has, during his papacy, reduced the opportunities for cardinals to get to know one another and form alliances. This has led to a more diverse and global representation of cardinals, with 73 of the 138 voting cardinals coming from outside Europe, including Mongolia and the Republic of the Congo.
Pope Francis has used the rhetoric that the Church should elect cardinals from the global Catholic community, thereby ensuring that cardinals do not know one another as well as they used to, Pattenden explained.
The article also mentioned that, at the beginning of his papacy, Pope Francis abolished regular meetings of the College of Cardinals, leading to a more isolated group of cardinals who rarely meet and know little about one another.
When the Pope passes away, these cardinals will likely know very little about each other, a Vatican official told Politico, anonymously.
A group of cardinals, known as the Curia cardinals, who reside in Rome and were appointed by Pope Francis to lead various Vatican ministries, may form rival factions and vie for power, Politico reported.
It is difficult to predict the outcome, as Pope Francis has centralized power in his person, a source told Politico. Historically, the power structure established by a pope tends to collapse after his death, Pattenden noted.
Andrea Gagliarducci, a Vatican analyst, said that the cardinals, an old group of men isolated from the outside world, may form unexpected alliances or factions in the aftermath of the Pope’s death, as they search for someone they can trust and who will not dismiss their interests.