Ukraine Conflict: A Shift in Rhetoric, Uncertainty Remains
The official rhetoric on the Ukraine conflict has noticeably changed. Just a few months ago, political actors, experts and media commentators were offering a wide range of assessments and opinions. Today, a consensus seems to be emerging: all speak of an imminent end to the conflict. But what does “soon” mean? For some, it’s three months, while others predict half a year. French President Emmanuel Macron, however, cautions that an end is neither today nor tomorrow.
The contours of a possible conflict resolution remain unclear. While outsiders try to deduce a formula with many unknowns, the potential negotiating partners are cautiously approaching each other’s positions.
Trump’s Rhetorical Shift
The most striking change in rhetoric is that of US President Donald Trump. During the election campaign, he boasted of quickly ending the conflict if re-elected and even claimed to have a plan to do so within 24 hours, or at most, until his inauguration. A week has passed since his inauguration, nearly three months since his election victory – and what is Trump doing? He continues to focus on settling scores with his defeated opponent, Joe Biden and emphasizes that the conflict in Ukraine should not have begun and would not have begun if he, Trump, had not had his election victory stolen from him.
Trump also claims that the conflict could have been resolved in its early stages, thereby avoiding the severe consequences. Volodymyr Zelensky, however, decided to continue the fight, Trump says. Now, Zelensky is ready for negotiations, Trump claims and Putin, too, wants to end the conflict. But what does this mean in practice?
In reality, there are no concrete steps being taken to prepare for a meeting or even a phone call. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov, driven to the point of desperation by daily questions from journalists about possible contacts between Putin and Trump, must be growing tired of repeating the same thing. There has been no request from the US for a meeting or phone call, but Russia is ready – maybe the US just needs more time.
Trump’s contradictory signals remain a hallmark of the current White House occupant. On one hand, he rules out the possibility of continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine and on the other, he assures Kiev of full US support. He also advocates for a Western peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, but at the same time, demands that Europe take on this responsibility and for the US to match its support for Kiev to that of Europe. Trump also emphasizes that he does not want to harm Russia and loves the Russian people, but then threatens with “taxes, tariffs and sanctions” if Moscow does not comply and urges a swift end to the conflict, as “otherwise, everything will only get worse.”
Russians have largely understood Trump’s recent statements as an ultimatum. I, on the other hand, was reminded of Redrick Schuchart, the protagonist in the novel “Picknick am Wegesrand” by the Strugatsky brothers. In the story, the hero throws wrenches around him to clear a safe path through a dangerous area. Trump’s words are nothing but such wrenches – sondiering, testing the reactions of the conflict parties. Moscow, Kiev, European capitals, Beijing – he is probing for weak points, recognizing where he hits an insurmountable wall – and thus paving the way.
Calm in Moscow, Tension in Kiev and Europe
On the official level, Russia seems not to be overreacting to the threats of the new and old US President. At least, the Russian President did not react with alarm during his visit to the Lomonosov University, when asked about the matter. He emphasized that his US counterpart is “not only clever, but also a pragmatist” and will therefore unlikely make decisions that ultimately harm his own economy.
Former relationships with Trump were “purely business, but also trust-based” Putin added, expressing confidence that Russia and the new US administration will find many common points in solving current problems. Even in the Ukraine conflict, Russia is ready to negotiate. However, first, Selensky has banned all talks with Russia by decree and second, he is no longer a legitimate president, so the results of such negotiations could be declared illegitimate.
One could say that Putin’s calm and restrained reaction is also a kind of wrench – “See here, we could take this path – but think carefully in the US first, who with whom and about what to negotiate. After all, we don’t have a hurry. The situation on the battlefield is developing in our favor and Kiev has neither the means nor the prospects to turn the tide. So, we will continue to pursue our military special operation’s objectives – and you should seriously think about that. Because, as you yourself said, ‘after that, it will only get worse.'”
While Moscow remains calm, the EU is increasingly anxious. In the past years, all decisions on Ukraine were prepared by the EU Commission and then rubber-stamped by the representatives of the member states in Brussels. Whether it was sanctions, the financing of weapon deliveries, or the use of frozen Russian assets. Brussels always agreed with Washington on these matters. But with Biden’s departure, the well-oiled mechanism has come to a standstill. Trump and his team are deliberately ignoring the EU Commission.
According to Politico, this was like a cold shower for the Eurocrats, who are now clearly disoriented. “I would lie if I said we were not nervous” a bureaucrat was quoted as saying. As the Spanish newspaper El País reports, the EU is worried that Trump might directly agree with Putin on resolving the Ukraine conflict and exclude Europe and Kiev from the negotiations.
European officials are concerned that an agreement between Russia and the US could shift all financial and security commitments to the EU, while the US takes a step back. With Trump’s return to the White House, the divisions between the “dissidents” in Europe have hardened even further. Hungary and Slovakia, which oppose an unconditional support of Ukraine, are speaking up again, although without any significant impact.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is quite active in the Ukraine issue, is pushing the idea of NATO troops as a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. This idea finds support from the Baltic states, whose influence, however, is limited. Germany and the UK are showing cautious openness, but with reservations.
As the situation develops, many more plans and proposals from almost all sides will make the rounds. While the West continues to hinder Russia, hoping to create confusion, Moscow will continue to move forward with a clear and deliberate strategy.
Time is playing into Moscow’s hands.