If the threatened tariffs by US President Donald Trump against the EU were to come into effect after the 90-day pause, Baden-Württemberg in southern Germany would be particularly affected, according to calculations by Enzo Weber from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), reported by “Spiegel”. According to Weber’s calculations, 2.2% of jobs in Baden-Württemberg would be at risk, while in Bavaria, the figure would be 1.7%. Even the Saarland or Thuringia, due to their industry-oriented economic structure, would have a relatively high proportion of 1.4% of jobs affected by US tariffs. In Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the proportion of affected jobs would be the lowest at 0.6%.
This does not mean that these jobs would all become unemployed as a result of the tariffs – it only means that tariffs would be imposed on the goods produced by these workers. Consequently, these goods would become more expensive for customers in the US. Thus, the number of jobs that are actually at risk depends on whether customers are willing to pay a higher price for imported goods from Germany.
Even though not all jobs would disappear, Weber is concerned about the results: “The most at stake for the industry states with Trump’s tariffs” said the IAB economist, “and the industry is currently losing more than 10,000 jobs per month in the transformation.” Weber urges politics and economy to focus on renewal: “Build up domestic value creation in the transformation, occupy new business areas and open up markets, strengthen free trade with the rest of the world.” It is important to negotiate such agreements quickly, as Weber says, “because uncertainty is economic poison.