A study by the Ifo Institute has found no correlation between the influx of migrants to Germany and a higher crime rate in the areas of settlement. The analysis of the police’s criminal statistics by federal districts for the years 2018 to 2023 reveals that “we find no connection between an increasing foreigner proportion in a district and the local crime rate. The same applies specifically to asylum seekers” said Ifo researcher Jean-Victor Alipour. “The results align with the findings of international research, which shows that migration and flight have no systematic influence on crime rates in the host country.”
Foreigners are overrepresented in the crime statistics in comparison to their population share. The reason lies in origin-independent factors, according to the Ifo: migrants tend to move to urban centers, where the overall crime risk is higher, even for native residents. The fact that migrants are, on average, younger and more often male also plays a smaller role. “Considering these factors, there is no statistical correlation between the regional foreigner proportion and crime rate” said Ifo researcher Joop Adema. “The assumption that foreigners or asylum seekers have a higher criminal propensity than demographically comparable native residents is not tenable.”
The study also finds no statistical correlation with a rising foreigner proportion or the proportion of asylum seekers in particularly serious crimes such as homicides or sexual assaults.
Preventing crime among migrants can be achieved primarily through integration into the labor market, the researchers argue. They suggest that simple recognition of foreign diplomas and the distribution of asylum seekers according to regional labor demand would be sensible measures. “Migrants can gain legal earning opportunities faster, which prevents criminal behavior. Moreover, the labor shortage could be better covered” said Alipour.