American markets concluded 2024 with a muted final trading day, echoing a similar pattern from the previous year. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a slight decline of 0.6% to close at 48,063.29 – down from the previous day’s close – it still demonstrated a robust annual gain of 13%. This mirrors the 13% increase observed in 2023, prompting questions about the sustainability of such consistent growth despite intermittent volatility.
The broader S&P 500 followed suit, ending the year at 6,845.50, 0.7% lower than the previous close, yet still boasting a substantial 16% year-over-year increase, a notable drop from last year’s impressive 23% surge. The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted with technology stocks, also experienced a daily dip of 0.8% to 25,249.85, ending the year up approximately 20%, a shade less than the 25% jump seen in 2024.
The performance of these indices underlines a complex picture of market resilience interwoven with increasing fragility. The deceleration in growth from 2023 to 2024 raises concerns about potential overvaluation and the impact of increasingly restrictive monetary policies expected in 2025. Analysts are closely watching to see if the initial post-holiday trading period will test the year-end optimism.
Gold, which enjoyed a year of record-breaking runs, culminating in an impressive 64% increase, softened slightly during the final trading day, settling at $4,312 per fine ounce (approximately €118 per gram), a 0.6% decrease. This momentary dip, while minimal, might foreshadow a correction in the precious metals market after an extended period of intense speculation fueled by geopolitical instability and inflation fears.
The oil market presented a contrasting narrative, with Brent crude falling to $60.85 a barrel – a 0.8% drop and roughly 20% below the level at the beginning of the year. This significant decrease in oil prices will likely ease inflationary pressures; however, it also poses a challenge to energy-producing nations and highlights a potential shift in global energy demand alongside a slowing global economy.
The euro strengthened modestly to $1.1748, with the dollar exchanging for $0.8512. Notably, the dollar has lost around 14% against the euro on an annual basis, a stark contrast to last year when exchange rates were nearly parity. This relative weakening of the dollar reflects ongoing concerns about US fiscal policy and its potential impact on long-term economic stability, further complicating the global economic landscape heading into the new year. The divergence between asset class performance signals a period of increasing scrutiny and potential realignment within the international financial system.