The re-election of Markus Söder as CSU chairman on Friday marked a significant shift in the party’s internal dynamics, revealing growing discontent within the ranks despite the seemingly decisive victory. While Söder secured 83.6% of the vote at the party convention in Munich, the result represents his lowest approval rating since assuming the leadership in 2019 – and historically poor when considering unchallenged elections.
This outcome contrasts starkly with his previous victories, particularly the 96.6% endorsement received in 2023 and underscores a potential erosion of the unwavering support he once enjoyed. Only three previous CSU chairmen – Hans Ehard, Franz Josef Strauß and Josef Müller – received lower approval ratings in unchallenged votes, placing Söder’s current standing in a precarious historical context. Even Horst Seehofer, weathering considerable criticism in 2017, garnered a marginally stronger result than Söder’s showing this week.
Prior to the vote, Söder attempted to shore up support with a broad political agenda, notable for its surprising restraint. Typically a vocal critic of both the coalition partners and the Green party, Söder opted for a more muted approach, instead focusing on distancing the CSU from the AfD. While this strategy might have been aimed at galvanizing centrist voters, it also served to highlight existing divisions within the CSU, with some observers suggesting a deliberate attempt to avoid confronting simmering policy disagreements.
Furthermore, Söder’s renewed push for a distinctive “Bavarian path” particularly regarding a complete withdrawal from the Länderfinanzausgleich system (the system of fiscal equalisation between German states), raises concerns about the potential for escalating tensions within the national government and further straining relations with Berlin. The move appears designed to appeal to Bavarian nationalism and assert greater regional autonomy, but it’s likely to be viewed by national policymakers as an act of political brinkmanship and a challenge to established federal principles.
The subdued criticism of coalition partners coupled with a bold, potentially divisive, agenda point to a leader grappling with a weakening grip and attempting to navigate a delicate political landscape – a landscape increasingly coloured by the rise of the AfD and growing regional demands for political and fiscal independence.